Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game RPG?

RPG + Trading Card Game

Of 59 developers who shipped a Trading Card Game RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×346 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 132 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 132 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $4.9k → $9.4k → $2.3k → $955 → $599 → $390 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,249)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 191
Announced 132
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 36%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Trading Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,564 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Yu-Gi-Oh! EARLY DAYS COLLECTION $49.99 444 76% 13k $666k (exactly $665,867) Digital Eclipse
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Danganronpa S: Ultimate Summer Camp older $19.99 761 62% 23k $456k (exactly $456,372) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
RUNGORE older $14.99 991 85% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) YOUR_MOM'S_HP, RavenJm
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
修仙•母珠传 Pig Training Legend $7.99 192 72% 5.8k $46k (exactly $46,022) MouseKKK
Handmancers · EA $14.99 76 88% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) 58BLADES
Fairtravel Battle CCG · EA $14.99 52 98% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Flaming Torch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.