Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading RPG?

RPG + Trading

Of 87 developers who shipped a Trading RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 270 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 270 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 270 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $2.3k → $4.5k → $3.1k → $16k → $2.1k → $4.1k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $72,851)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 279
Announced 270
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Trading; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 20,476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 270 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022 · $23M The Guild 3 2022 · $6.4M Rebel Galaxy 2015 · $4.4M 《蜀山：初章》买断版 2022 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
《蜀山：初章》买断版 older $24.99 5,772 74% 173k $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) 重楼工作室
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.