Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter RPG?

RPG + Top-Down Shooter

Of 250 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 406 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×282 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 406 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 406 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 250
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $3.6k → $2.5k → $3.2k → $2.9k → $1.6k → $748 (still earning) → $872 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 250
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,899)
Developers, 2 yr 250
Released games 678
Announced 406
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 95,824 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 127 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 406 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Escape From Duckov 2025 · $45M Foxhole 2022 · $43M The Ascent 2021 · $17M Darksiders Genesis 2019 · $9.3M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
Noobs Are Coming $7.99 1,580 82% 47k $379k (exactly $378,726) Overboy
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Vital Shell $5.99 1,752 96% 53k $315k (exactly $314,834) MarvinWizard

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.