Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation RPG?

RPG + Time Manipulation

Of 32 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1917 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 93 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 93 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $61k → $479 → $5.3k → $17k → $5.1k → $59k → $1.8k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,749)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 99
Announced 93
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Time Manipulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,034 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Timespinner older $19.99 2,823 86% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) Lunar Ray Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Cris Tales older $39.99 392 66% 12k $470k (exactly $470,282) Dreams Uncorporated, SYCK
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Iron Danger older $19.99 544 73% 16k $326k (exactly $326,237) Action Squad Studios
灵墟 older $10.99 946 86% 28k $312k (exactly $311,896) HappyTall Game
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Kill The Shadow $16.99 447 86% 13k $228k (exactly $227,836) Shadowlight
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
Titans of the Past $24.99 108 83% 3.2k $81k (exactly $80,968) Devil's Dozen Games
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.