Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Time Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Management RPG?

RPG + Time Management

Of 223 developers who shipped a Time Management RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 390 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1462 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 390 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 390 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Time Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 223
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $4.9k → $30k → $14k → $11k → $8.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Time Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 223
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,863)
Top 5% $918k (exactly $918,382)
Developers, 2 yr 223
Released games 484
Announced 390
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Time Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 110,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 390 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M The Blood of Dawnwalker 2026 · $33M Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M Sultan's Game 2025 · $19M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Summer Memories older $19.99 24,113 92% 723k $14M (exactly $14,460,566) Dojin Otome
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.