Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop RPG?

RPG + Tabletop

Of 137 developers who shipped a Tabletop RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 229 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×723 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 229 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 229 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $24k → $3.6k → $4.7k → $1.4k → $1.7k → $1.9k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 137
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,739)
Top 5% $454k (exactly $453,742)
Developers, 2 yr 137
Released games 454
Announced 229
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Adventure, Board Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 44,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 229 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Terrinoth®: Heroes of Descent $34.99 441 75% 13k $463k (exactly $462,918) Artefacts Studio, Shine Group
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Loot of Baal $8.99 1,372 62% 41k $370k (exactly $370,028) Gleamer Studio
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.