Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Survival Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Horror RPG?

RPG + Survival Horror

Of 173 developers who shipped a Survival Horror RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 342 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5656 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 342 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 342 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Survival Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 173
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $1.4k → $3.6k → $2.9k → $5.8k → $3.2k → $4.5k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Survival Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 173
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,581)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,552,099)
Developers, 2 yr 173
Released games 582
Announced 342
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Survival Horror; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 130,208 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 342 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Project Zomboid 2013 · EA · $274M Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon 2025 · $45M DREDGE 2023 · $36M Prey 2017 · $34M Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Prey older $29.99 37,759 90% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,971,772) Arkane Studios
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Aliens: Fireteam Elite older $29.99 21,668 80% 650k $19M (exactly $19,494,700) Cold Iron Studios
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Dead Island Definitive Edition older $19.99 24,063 82% 722k $14M (exactly $14,430,581) Techland
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Darkwood older $19.99 22,236 94% 667k $13M (exactly $13,334,929) Acid Wizard Studio
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
FATAL FRAME II: Crimson Butterfly REMAKE $49.99 2,663 87% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,993,701) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
No One Survived $16.99 6,969 64% 209k $3.6M (exactly $3,552,099) Cat Play Studio
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.