Should I ship a Survival RPG?
RPG + Survival
Of 723 developers who shipped a Survival RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,426 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2341 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,426 games are announced against 392 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $28,059) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 723 |
| Released games | 2,252 |
| Announced | 1,426 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,011,677 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 377 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,426 games are announced against 392 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Terraria 2011 · $372M 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
Project Zomboid 2013 · EA · $274M 
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | Project Zomboid | · EA older | $24.99 | 364,830 94% | 11M | $274M (exactly $273,513,051) | The Indie Stone |
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN | $39.99 | 129,476 83% | 3.9M | $155M (exactly $155,332,357) | FromSoftware, Inc. | |
 | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Rise of the Tomb Raider™ | older | $29.99 | 127,316 94% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $114,546,205) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes) |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Escape From Duckov | $17.99 | 83,826 85% | 2.5M | $45M (exactly $45,240,892) | Team Soda | |
 | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Grounded 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 21,442 82% | 643k | $19M (exactly $19,291,367) | Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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