Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship RPG?

RPG + Spaceships

Only 11 developers shipped a Spaceship RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wildgate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 183.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 2445% on the market, 13 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for RPG + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $115k (exactly $115,454)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Top 5% $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2445% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 11,254 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $4.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Starpoint Gemini 3 older $29.99 759 49% 23k $683k (exactly $682,872) Little Green Men Games
Space Pirates and Zombies older $9.99 2,231 91% 67k $669k (exactly $668,631) MinMax Games Ltd.
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Star Vortex · EA $24.99 154 84% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Zorg Games
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Space Defender · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Petit Vaisseau
Halley Mission: 2061 $0.99 14 64% 420 $416 (exactly $416) PcZ Games
星宇战舰 Astral-Battlecraft $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jilin Code Rabbit Network Game Co.,Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.