Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim RPG?

RPG + Space Sim

Of 47 developers who shipped a Space Sim RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 126 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 126 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $5.4k → $24k → $1.8k → $8.1k → $3.1k → $7.2k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,949)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 208
Announced 126
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Space Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Exploration, Flight
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 17,152 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starfield 2023 · $173M Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M Wildgate 2025 · $4.5M Rebel Galaxy 2015 · $4.4M Starcom: Unknown Space 2024 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starfield older $49.99 115,202 58% 3.5M $173M (exactly $172,768,439) Bethesda Game Studios
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Drifter Star: Evolution $3.99 1,165 73% 35k $139k (exactly $139,450) Kayla Studio
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Stellar Wanderer DX $19.99 60 71% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Dream Builder Studios
Sector Space · EA $7.49 144 93% 4.3k $32k (exactly $32,357) Robin M. Farrell
TAXINAUT $19.99 39 87% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) mosgrom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.