Should I ship a Space RPG?
RPG + Space
Of 221 developers who shipped a Space RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 468 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 468 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $22,485) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 221 |
| Released games | 805 |
| Announced | 468 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 118,221 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 468 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
Starfield 2023 · $173M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M 
Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M 
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition 2021 · $112M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | Starfield | older | $49.99 | 115,202 58% | 3.5M | $173M (exactly $172,768,439) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ | older | $69.99 | 79,990 71% | 2.4M | $168M (exactly $167,955,003) | Respawn |
| | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
| | Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition | older | $59.99 | 62,205 91% | 1.9M | $112M (exactly $111,950,338) | BioWare |
 | Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy | older | $59.99 | 35,397 93% | 1.1M | $64M (exactly $63,703,981) | Eidos-Montréal |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Elite Dangerous | older | $19.99 | 82,399 76% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,414,680) | Frontier Developments |
 | Starbound | older | $14.99 | 87,418 90% | 2.6M | $39M (exactly $39,311,875) | Chucklefish |
 | Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel | older | $39.99 | 31,771 79% | 953k | $38M (exactly $38,115,669) | 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | The Outer Worlds 2 | $69.99 | 8,450 73% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,742,465) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Subverse | $39.99 | 13,781 66% | 413k | $17M (exactly $16,533,066) | Studio FOW Interactive | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | Wildgate | $29.99 | 5,032 77% | 151k | $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) | Moonshot Games | |
 | SpaceBourne 2 | $19.99 | 4,951 75% | 149k | $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) | Burak Dabak | |
 | Voidling Bound | $24.99 | 3,126 92% | 94k | $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) | Hatchery Games | |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Cubic Odyssey | $24.99 | 2,406 74% | 72k | $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) | Atypical Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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