Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper RPG?

RPG + Shop Keeper

Of 69 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 144 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2283 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 144 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 144 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $4.3k → $2.5k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,330)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 84
Announced 144
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 565% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Shop Keeper; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Life Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 27,214 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 144 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Boba Cafe Simulator $15.99 1,192 92% 36k $572k (exactly $571,802) Caikemi
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Witchy Business $14.99 865 86% 26k $389k (exactly $388,990) Rogue Duck Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.