Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up RPG?

RPG + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 133 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 183 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×193 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 183 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 183 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $2.3k → $1.5k → $479 → $2.0k → $449 → $1.6k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $121k (exactly $120,969)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 477
Announced 183
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Roguelite
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 18,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
Zombotron older $14.99 2,974 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,337,408) Ant.Karlov Games
DR LIVESEY ROM AND DEATH EDITION older $2.99 12,437 94% 373k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,599) Agafonoff
Juicy Realm older $9.99 3,269 87% 98k $980k (exactly $979,719) SpaceCan
Alien Hominid Invasion older $19.99 1,572 88% 47k $943k (exactly $942,728) The Behemoth
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Slime 3K: Rise Against Despot $4.99 1,584 79% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Konfa Games
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Shape Shifter: Formations $14.99 269 91% 8.1k $121k (exactly $120,969) Castec Studios
Cyberwar: Neon City · EA $17.99 171 90% 5.1k $92k (exactly $92,289) Cyber Monkey Studios
Pinball Storm: Lokanta $5.99 434 70% 13k $78k (exactly $77,990) Aastral Dynamics
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.