Should I ship a Sandbox RPG?
RPG + Sandbox
Of 446 developers who shipped a Sandbox RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,104 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.2M, ×6831 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 1,104 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $14,270) |
| Top 25% | $254k (exactly $254,273) |
| Top 5% | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 446 |
| Released games | 1,577 |
| Announced | 1,104 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Exploration, Crafting
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 831,047 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 237 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,104 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M 
Terraria 2011 · $372M 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
| | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | Project Zomboid | · EA older | $24.99 | 364,830 94% | 11M | $274M (exactly $273,513,051) | The Indie Stone |
 | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome | $29.99 | 56,535 65% | 1.7M | $51M (exactly $50,864,540) | ConchShip Games | |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | Grounded 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 21,442 82% | 643k | $19M (exactly $19,291,367) | Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Dinkum | $19.99 | 24,641 92% | 739k | $15M (exactly $14,777,208) | James Bendon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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