Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG RTS?

RTS + RPG

Of 109 developers who shipped an RPG RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 237 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×964 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 237 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 237 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 109
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $898 → $25k → $599 → $5.3k → $2.6k → $2.8k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 109
Bottom 30% $356 (exactly $356)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 109
Released games 482
Announced 237
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Strategy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 35,953 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 237 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.