Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite RPG?

RPG + Roguelite

Of 1,268 developers who shipped a Roguelite RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,124 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 2,124 games are announced against 788 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 2,124 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,268
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $5.2k → $5.9k → $4.1k → $4.3k → $4.0k → $1.7k (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,268
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,158)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,226)
Developers, 2 yr 1,268
Released games 2,950
Announced 2,124
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.90 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.90 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 519,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 541 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,124 games are announced against 788 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades 2020 · $214M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Hades II 2025 · $103M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.