Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike RPG?

RPG + Roguelike

Of 1,367 developers who shipped a Roguelike RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,180 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×851 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 2,180 games are announced against 857 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 2,180 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,367
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.7k → $4.2k → $4.3k → $4.8k → $3.0k → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,367
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,503)
Top 5% $534k (exactly $534,365)
Developers, 2 yr 1,367
Released games 3,336
Announced 2,180
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 404,261 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 591 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,180 games are announced against 857 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades 2020 · $214M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Hades II 2025 · $103M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.