Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Resource Management RPG?

RPG + Resource Management

Of 375 developers who shipped a Resource Management RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 900 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×888 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 900 games are announced against 253 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 900 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 375
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0k → $12k → $6.2k → $11k → $12k → $3.1k → $5.3k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 375
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Top 5% $558k (exactly $557,777)
Developers, 2 yr 375
Released games 863
Announced 900
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Resource Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 55,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 900 games are announced against 253 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Sandustry · EA $14.99 4,805 97% 144k $2.2M (exactly $2,160,808) Lantto Games
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Yes, Your Grace 2: Snowfall $24.99 1,488 76% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,554) Brave At Night

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.