Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time RPG?

Real-Time + RPG

Only 10 developers shipped a Real-Time RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Castle Craft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.4k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 11 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $14k → $599
Outcomes for Real-Time + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,436)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,330)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 88
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 82% positive over 1,140 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) 2009 · $12M Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare 2019 · $8.6M Satellite Reign 2015 · $2.4M Legend of Grimrock 2012 · $2.2M Tower of Time 2018 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare older $24.99 11,489 64% 345k $8.6M (exactly $8,613,303) KK Game Studio
Satellite Reign older $29.99 2,619 75% 79k $2.4M (exactly $2,356,314) 5 Lives Studios
Legend of Grimrock older $14.99 4,844 93% 145k $2.2M (exactly $2,178,347) Almost Human Games
Tower of Time older $24.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,803) Event Horizon
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Vaporum older $19.99 998 84% 30k $599k (exactly $598,501) Fatbot Games, s. r. o.
Nevergrind Online older $15.99 1,221 86% 37k $586k (exactly $585,714) Neverworks Games
Original War older $9.99 1,812 94% 54k $543k (exactly $543,056) Altar Games
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Tower of Mask $10.99 357 95% 11k $118k (exactly $117,703) Papertip Studio
Sin and Love $14.99 232 65% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) XingCaiStudio
Dungeons & Dragons: Dragonshard $9.99 45 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Liquid Entertainment
Yamizome Liberator $34.95 9 66% 270 $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Escu:de
Warsong · EA $14.99 10 70% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Windforce
RAIDING PARTY · EA $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Skull Splitter Studios
Kraktures $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Deggy
Yagazem Elements $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) CirilXD
BaseStar $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DeKat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.