Do I ship it?

GamesAction RTSAction RTS + Real-Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time Action RTS?

Action RTS + Real-Time

Only 12 developers shipped a Real-Time Action RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tempest Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×21 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $12k; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×7857 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RTS + Real-Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $33k → $62k → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RTS + Real-Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $11,242)
Median $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,770,257)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RTS, Real-Time
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,004 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Auto BattlerFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  2. + FPSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  3. + PuzzleLong shot16 devs · median $594 · 16 announced
  4. + Turn-Based StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $85k · 16 announced
  5. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds9 devs · median $85k · 18 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds26 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds25 devs · median $18k · 54 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds30 devs · median $13k · 50 announced
  9. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 51 announced
  10. + Grand StrategyPoor odds25 devs · median $7.5k · 41 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds10 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds19 devs · median $7.2k · 35 announced

All 89 pairs on the Action RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Executive Assault 2 older $24.99 1,604 82% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,519) Hesketh Studios Ltd
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Fire Commander older $14.99 325 66% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Atomic Wolf, Pixel Crow Games
TFC: The Fertile Crescent older $10.99 369 88% 11k $122k (exactly $121,659) Wield Interactive
Final Outpost: Definitive Edition $9.99 208 76% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Exabyte Games
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Battlefall: State of Conflict · EA $19.99 52 63% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Kyoto Video Game Concern
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age · EA $17.99 33 81% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Wield Interactive
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Warsong · EA $14.99 10 70% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Windforce

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.