Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Physics
Should I ship a Physics Real-Time game?
Real-Time + Physics
Only 7 developers shipped a Physics Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $33k, ×52 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $19k; 1 in 20 cleared $120M, ×200813 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $19k (exactly $18,936) |
|---|---|
| Median | $33k (exactly $32,922) |
| Top 25% | $685k (exactly $684,893) |
| Top 5% | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Real-Time, Physics
- Price point
- $17.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 74,736 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Character CustomizationStrong odds
- + RogueliteFair
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + Action RTSPoor odds
- + StrategyPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
Comparable games
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition 2026 · $126M 
Omelet You Cook 2026 · $685k 
Castle Flipper 2021 · $585k 
Castle Craft 2026 · $288k 
Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) 2019 · $187k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Omelet You Cook | $14.99 | 1,523 97% | 46k | $685k (exactly $684,893) | Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose | |
| | Castle Flipper | older | $18.99 | 1,027 64% | 31k | $585k (exactly $585,082) | ▲ Pyramid Games |
| | Castle Craft | $19.99 | 480 82% | 14k | $288k (exactly $287,856) | Twin Earth | |
| | Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) | older | $24.99 | 250 70% | 7.5k | $187k (exactly $187,425) | Auroch Digital |
 | Fire Commander | older | $14.99 | 325 66% | 9.8k | $146k (exactly $146,152) | Atomic Wolf, Pixel Crow Games |
 | Drone Swarm | older | $16.99 | 279 62% | 8.4k | $142k (exactly $142,206) | stillalive studios |
 | Mini Golf Arena | · EA older | $8.99 | 385 51% | 12k | $104k (exactly $103,834) | Evoluta Studio |
 | Sub Command | older | $18.99 | 136 74% | 4.1k | $77k (exactly $77,479) | Sonalysts |
 | Radical Relocation | older | $9.99 | 258 74% | 7.7k | $77k (exactly $77,323) | Winglett Entertainment |
 | Genesis of a Small God | $17.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $33k (exactly $32,922) | Pierre Nury | |
 | Boxing Simulator | $7.99 | 79 79% | 2.4k | $19k (exactly $18,936) | Inogames | |
 | Infest | $14.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | Chute Apps | |
 | Skyos | · EA | $19.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | SkyOS Labs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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