Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Real-Time game?

Real-Time + War

Only 14 developers shipped a War Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tempest Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×59 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $16k; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18742 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $643k → $7.5k → $22k → $276k → $3.6k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $16k (exactly $15,584)
Median $37k (exactly $36,826)
Top 25% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,770,257)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 106
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 17,628 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $16k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $270k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  6. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  9. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced
  12. + SimulationPoor odds25 devs · median $22k · 43 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Company of Heroes 2 2013 · $41M Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M Iron Harvest 2020 · $11M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare older $24.99 11,489 64% 345k $8.6M (exactly $8,613,303) KK Game Studio
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Rise of Nations: Extended Edition older $19.99 13,358 94% 401k $8.0M (exactly $8,010,793) SkyBox Labs, Big Huge Games
Call to Arms older $14.99 17,431 80% 523k $7.8M (exactly $7,838,721) Digitalmindsoft
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) $14.99 188 96% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Black Hole Entertainment
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Tactical Warfare $9.99 52 67% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mizrab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.