Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Roguelite

Only 11 developers shipped a Roguelite Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Omelet You Cook, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $6.8k. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $315k → $11k → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Median $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,043)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $684,893)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 40
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Roguelite
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.8k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.8k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  3. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  4. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  6. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  9. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced
  12. + SimulationPoor odds25 devs · median $22k · 43 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Nevergrind Online older $15.99 1,221 86% 37k $586k (exactly $585,714) Neverworks Games
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Ikki Unite older $11.99 674 77% 20k $242k (exactly $242,438) SUNSOFT
Cosmodread older $14.99 391 91% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) White Door Games
Zombasite older $19.99 194 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) Soldak Entertainment
Din's Legacy older $19.99 185 77% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Soldak Entertainment
Sin and Love $14.99 232 65% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) XingCaiStudio
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
Eclipse Breaker $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Lunar Workshop, Jorge Rodriguez
Remnants of the Rift $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Bromio
RAIDING PARTY · EA $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Skull Splitter Studios
Reverse Survivors $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Holiver Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.