Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Building

Only 14 developers shipped a Building Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Endzone 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $62k, ×99 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $19k; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1281 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 99.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $294k → $34k → $276k → $19k
Outcomes for Real-Time + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $19k (exactly $18,581)
Median $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 25% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 71
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 3,733 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $62k, 1 in 4 over $270k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  4. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  6. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  9. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced
  12. + SimulationPoor odds25 devs · median $22k · 43 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires: Definitive Edition 2019 · $8.6M Rise of Nations: Extended Edition 2014 · $8.0M Anno 2070™ 2011 · $6.9M Railway Empire 2018 · $6.5M Endzone - A World Apart 2021 · $6.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Rise of Nations: Extended Edition older $19.99 13,358 94% 401k $8.0M (exactly $8,010,793) SkyBox Labs, Big Huge Games
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Airships: Conquer the Skies older $24.99 6,197 95% 186k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) David Stark
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Stronghold 3 Gold older $29.99 3,008 31% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,706,298) Firefly Studios
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Final Outpost: Definitive Edition $9.99 208 76% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Exabyte Games
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
uFactory $9.99 62 69% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Lucid Silence Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.