Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Base Building

Of 21 developers who shipped a Base Building Real-Time game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×59 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $20k; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1281 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $157k → $3.0k → $64k → $231k → $86k → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $20k (exactly $19,787)
Median $37k (exactly $36,826)
Top 25% $231k (exactly $230,702)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 101
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, City Builder
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 13,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $20k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $20k. 3 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  9. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced
  12. + SimulationPoor odds25 devs · median $22k · 43 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Rise of Nations: Extended Edition older $19.99 13,358 94% 401k $8.0M (exactly $8,010,793) SkyBox Labs, Big Huge Games
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Ancestors Legacy older $34.99 5,794 80% 174k $6.1M (exactly $6,081,962) Destructive Creations
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio
Final Outpost: Definitive Edition $9.99 208 76% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Exabyte Games
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.