Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Simulation

Of 37 developers who shipped a Simulation Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $36k, ×24 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×6549 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 75 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 75 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.2k → $157k → $32k → $36k → $1.5M → $26k → $124k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Median $36k (exactly $35,600)
Top 25% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 204
Announced 75
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Simulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Resource Management, Management
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 35,225 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $36k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.