Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Sci-fi

Only 12 developers shipped a Sci-fi Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Void War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1462 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 33 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $291k → $17k → $2.3M → $274k → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Median $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 25% $274k (exactly $273,867)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 100
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,590 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.8k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $270k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.8k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Mass Effect (2007) older $29.99 14,871 93% 446k $13M (exactly $13,379,439) BioWare
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ older $9.99 28,518 90% 856k $8.5M (exactly $8,546,845) BioWare, Aspyr (Mac)
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Cosmoteer: Starship Architect & Commander · EA older $19.99 12,013 94% 360k $7.2M (exactly $7,204,196) Walternate Realities
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ older $9.99 22,357 93% 671k $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update))
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance older $12.99 9,919 96% 298k $3.9M (exactly $3,865,434) Gas Powered Games
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Space Drilling Station · EA $19.99 63 90% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Ayota Games
Deadlock Station $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Luxorix Games
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
Remnants of the Rift $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Bromio
Space Menace 2 $9.99 20 75% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Only4Gamers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.