Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time with Pause › Real-Time with Pause + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Sandbox

Only 16 developers shipped a Sandbox Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $38k, ×25 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7253 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $157k → $6.3k → $103k → $124k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Median $38k (exactly $37,781)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,865,683)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 96
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Sandbox
Price point
$15.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 19,511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $38k, 1 in 4 over $1.0M, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Stellaris 2016 · $210M Cities: Skylines 2015 · $198M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Space Drilling Station · EA $19.99 63 90% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Ayota Games
A Little Age $14.99 61 62% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Benerot
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.