Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Roguelike

Only 12 developers shipped a Roguelike Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Void War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $36k, ×24 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1462 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $219k → $215k (still earning) → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Median $36k (exactly $35,600)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,118)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Roguelike
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,889 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $36k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Trigon: Space Story older $19.99 1,247 67% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) Sernur.tech
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Deadly Days older $11.99 1,388 86% 42k $499k (exactly $499,264) Pixelsplit
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
Battlevoid: Harbinger older $9.99 933 79% 28k $280k (exactly $279,620) Bugbyte Ltd.
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Deep Among the Swarm $8.99 132 85% 4.0k $36k (exactly $35,600) Pebble Mountain Games
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Deadlock Station $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Luxorix Games
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.