Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Tactical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time Tactical game?

Real-Time + Tactical

Only 15 developers shipped a Real-Time Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1209 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 28.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Tactical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $116k → $315k → $9.4k → $276k → $85k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Tactical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Median $18k (exactly $17,810)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,544)
Top 5% $759k (exactly $759,410)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 120
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Tactical
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 2,292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.1k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.1k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare older $24.99 11,489 64% 345k $8.6M (exactly $8,613,303) KK Game Studio
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) $14.99 188 96% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Black Hole Entertainment
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age · EA $17.99 33 81% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Wield Interactive
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Yamizome Liberator $34.95 9 66% 270 $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Escu:de

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.