Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time Survival game?

Real-Time + Survival

Only 7 developers shipped a Real-Time Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Endzone 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $37k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 58.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Median $37k (exactly $36,826)
Top 25% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 36
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 24,255 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Stronghold 3 Gold older $29.99 3,008 31% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,706,298) Firefly Studios
Creeper World 3: Arc Eternal older $14.99 4,098 96% 123k $1.8M (exactly $1,842,871) Knuckle Cracker
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Executive Assault older $12.99 1,267 84% 38k $494k (exactly $493,750) Hesketh Studios Ltd
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Cosmodread older $14.99 391 91% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) White Door Games
Final Outpost: Definitive Edition $9.99 208 76% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Exabyte Games
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
Millennium Conflict $3.99 17 100% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) Badim
Reverse Survivors $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Holiver Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.