Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time Sandbox?

Real-Time + Sandbox

Only 12 developers shipped a Real-Time Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $230k against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 367.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 17 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $157k → $33k → $231k → $86k
Outcomes for Real-Time + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $19k (exactly $18,936)
Median $231k (exactly $230,702)
Top 25% $322k (exactly $322,039)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 69
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Sandbox
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 9,429 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $230k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak 2016 · $12M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare 2019 · $8.6M Call to Arms 2018 · $7.8M Anno 2070™ 2011 · $6.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare older $24.99 11,489 64% 345k $8.6M (exactly $8,613,303) KK Game Studio
Call to Arms older $14.99 17,431 80% 523k $7.8M (exactly $7,838,721) Digitalmindsoft
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.