Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Roguelike

Only 8 developers shipped a Roguelike Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Omelet You Cook, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $11k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $315k → $11k → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Median $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,330)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $684,893)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 33
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Roguelike
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 19,170 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.8k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.8k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Nevergrind Online older $15.99 1,221 86% 37k $586k (exactly $585,714) Neverworks Games
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Cosmodread older $14.99 391 91% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) White Door Games
Sin and Love $14.99 232 65% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) XingCaiStudio
Distant Star: Revenant Fleet older $9.99 258 63% 7.7k $77k (exactly $77,323) Blazing Griffin
Cavity Busters older $14.99 95 95% 2.9k $43k (exactly $42,722) SpaceMyFriend, Ben Ridge
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
Eclipse Breaker $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Lunar Workshop, Jorge Rodriguez
Remnants of the Rift $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Bromio
RAIDING PARTY · EA $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Skull Splitter Studios
Reverse Survivors $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Holiver Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.