Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Quick-Time Events RPG?

RPG + Quick-Time Events

Of 83 developers who shipped a Quick-Time Events RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $57k, ×92 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 108 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 108 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $419 → $267 → $779 → $693 → $3.4k → $537 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,986)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 165
Announced 108
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Quick-Time Events; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Multiple Endings
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Ryse: Son of Rome older $9.99 38,308 87% 1.1M $11M (exactly $11,480,908) Crytek
Tales from the Borderlands older $19.99 15,101 93% 453k $9.1M (exactly $9,056,070) Telltale Games
STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition older $19.99 8,732 77% 262k $5.2M (exactly $5,236,580) LucasArts
Fahrenheit: Indigo Prophecy Remastered older $9.99 6,743 79% 202k $2.0M (exactly $2,020,877) Quantic Dream, Aspyr Media (remastered… (Quantic Dream, Aspyr Media (remastered version))
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Shenmue III older $29.99 1,028 75% 31k $925k (exactly $924,892) YS NET
Costume Quest older $9.99 2,606 95% 78k $781k (exactly $781,018) Double Fine Productions
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
THE VIG $17.99 488 90% 15k $263k (exactly $263,374) 亦盈文化, 山与海工作室, 北京超带感
Sorry! I surrounded beauty! $5.99 344 82% 10k $62k (exactly $61,817) Really Games
Twelves:Shadow $12.99 154 35% 4.6k $60k (exactly $60,014) JuLu Studio
我的同事不对劲 $8.99 215 89% 6.5k $58k (exactly $57,986) 11J Studio
My Cute Roommate 2 $24.99 76 59% 2.3k $57k (exactly $56,977) Astaros3d
KunKunNest $3.99 434 95% 13k $52k (exactly $51,950) JNTM, KunKunRoom, 鸡你太美
Nocan's Quest: Sex Gold Glory $9.99 167 69% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,050) Kinky Business Group
Magin: The Rat Project Stories $19.99 79 69% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) The Rat Project
Couple-Cultivation Saves the World $7.99 196 59% 5.9k $47k (exactly $46,981) Guns&Roses Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.