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Should I ship a PvE Visual Novel?
PvE + Visual Novel
Of 50 developers who shipped a PvE Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×566 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 65 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $750 (exactly $750) |
| Top 25% | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) |
| Top 5% | $356k (exactly $355,622) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 50 |
| Released games | 112 |
| Announced | 65 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvE
- effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, Visual Novel; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 7,444 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Wars and Roses 2022 · $1.5M 
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M 
Nunholy 2025 · $1.2M 
Night Shift Nurses 2024 · $356k 
AURA: Hentai Cards 2023 · $313k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Wars and Roses | older | $19.99 | 2,435 42% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) | Blaze Worlds |
| | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
| | Nunholy | $7.99 | 5,150 88% | 155k | $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) | Chowbie | |
| | Night Shift Nurses | $19.99 | 593 84% | 18k | $356k (exactly $355,622) | Shiravune | |
| | AURA: Hentai Cards | older | $9.99 | 1,045 80% | 31k | $313k (exactly $313,186) | TopHouse Studio, AniCore Team |
 | Quantum Protocol | older | $12.99 | 625 90% | 19k | $244k (exactly $243,562) | Kaio Meris |
 | Sunrider 4: The Captain's Return | older | $29.99 | 264 88% | 7.9k | $238k (exactly $237,521) | Love in Space |
 | All in Abyss: Judge the Fake | $15.99 | 375 54% | 11k | $180k (exactly $179,888) | ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground | |
 | Garfield Kart 2 - All You Can Drift | $24.99 | 216 45% | 6.5k | $162k (exactly $161,935) | Eden Games | |
 | Robot girl's dream -RobotBattleChampionship- | $16.99 | 196 95% | 5.9k | $100k (exactly $99,901) | DeskClub Games | |
 | Infinity: HexaDome Tactics | $19.99 | 92 75% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | Blindspot Games | |
 | Vilde | $15.99 | 87 74% | 2.6k | $42k (exactly $41,734) | Chaotic Minds | |
 | Town of Zoz | $19.99 | 50 70% | 1.5k | $30k (exactly $29,985) | Studio Pixanoh | |
 | Stuff It! | $9.99 | 54 87% | 1.6k | $16k (exactly $16,184) | BONNISOFT |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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