Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + PvE

Of 44 developers who shipped a PvE Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $160k, ×109 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35974 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 97 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 108.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 97 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4M → $83M → $19M → $19k → $1.1M → $720k (still earning) → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Median $163k (exactly $162,937)
Top 25% $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,889,324)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 60
Announced 97
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter, PvE; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Survival
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 512,262 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $160k, 1 in 4 over $3.9M, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 4 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  5. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  9. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $65k · 54 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M Marathon 2026 · $54M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.