Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval PvE game?

PvE + Naval

Of 21 developers who shipped a Naval PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4130 the market median. Revenue is up 695% on the market; 59 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 695% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $110k → $11k → $52k → $54k (still earning) → $59 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $11k (exactly $11,301)
Top 25% $157k (exactly $156,687)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 51
Announced 59
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 695% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 19,591 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced
  12. + DinosaursPoor odds28 devs · median $5.4k · 43 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M Skull and Bones 2024 · $4.2M The Quinfall 2026 · $3.6M Age of Water 2025 · $2.6M Salt 2: Shores of Gold 2025 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Airship: Kingdoms Adrift older $29.99 902 75% 27k $812k (exactly $811,529) Revolution Industry
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Decline's Drops $14.99 170 96% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Le Moulin aux Bulles
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.