Should I ship a Heist PvE game?
PvE + Heist
Only 18 developers shipped a Heist PvE game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Burglin' Gnomes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $30k, ×48 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) |
|---|---|
| Median | $30k (exactly $30,270) |
| Top 25% | $166k (exactly $165,568) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 56 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Procedural Generation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 11,568 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
Comparable games
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 
Crime Boss: Rockay City 2024 · $5.1M 
Deceive Inc. 2023 · $2.9M 
Burglin' Gnomes 2026 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
| | Crime Boss: Rockay City | older | $19.99 | 8,553 68% | 257k | $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) | INGAME STUDIOS |
| | Deceive Inc. | older | $19.99 | 4,755 84% | 143k | $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) | Sweet Bandits Studios |
| | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | Clank! | $22.99 | 542 92% | 16k | $374k (exactly $373,817) | Dire Wolf | |
 | Robber Knight | · EA older | $39.99 | 284 64% | 8.5k | $341k (exactly $340,715) | Sartorian |
 | Raw Metal | older | $19.99 | 452 88% | 14k | $271k (exactly $271,064) | Team Crucible |
 | Jackal | $14.99 | 596 88% | 18k | $268k (exactly $268,021) | Transhuman Design | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Net.Attack() - Code or Die! | $7.99 | 510 80% | 15k | $122k (exactly $122,247) | ByteRockers' Games | |
 | Frog Sqwad 🐸 | $7.99 | 352 72% | 11k | $84k (exactly $84,374) | Panic Stations | |
 | Dragon's Chronicles~暗黒大魔王と北斗の剣(つるぎ)~ | $12.99 | 128 85% | 3.8k | $50k (exactly $49,882) | スタジオあっとほ～む | |
 | OPG: Clan Wars | $9.99 | 101 74% | 3.0k | $30k (exactly $30,270) | Anarchy Games, Street's Game | |
 | Find or be Found | $7.99 | 117 69% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,045) | Studio Downstairs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.