Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship PvE game?

PvE + Spaceships

Only 16 developers shipped a Spaceship PvE game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jump Space, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×10241 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 20 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $157k → $1.2k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $157k (exactly $156,687)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Space Sim, Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 17,964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 20 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced
  12. + DinosaursPoor odds28 devs · median $5.4k · 43 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Infinity: Battlescape · EA older $34.99 640 79% 19k $672k (exactly $671,808) I-Novae Studios, LLC
Final Theory older $14.99 386 79% 12k $174k (exactly $173,584) Monticube
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio
Timeloop Titans $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) LapaGames
Drawn to Drift $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrogForgeGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.