Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Turn-Based Combat game?

PvE + Turn-Based Combat

Of 357 developers who shipped a PvE Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 601 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×166 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 601 games are announced against 219 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 601 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 357
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.2k → $600 → $779 → $1.9k → $1.1k → $450 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 357
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 5% $104k (exactly $104,162)
Developers, 2 yr 357
Released games 738
Announced 601
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 46,518 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $630, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 168 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 601 games are announced against 219 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M Temtem 2022 · $42M STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters 2022 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.