Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Turn-Based game?

PvE + Turn-Based

Of 43 developers who shipped a PvE Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9271 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 58 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 58 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $6.6k → $7.2k → $0 → $32k → $7.3k → $9.0k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,172)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 118
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 43,169 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin 2021 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Talisman: Digital Classic Edition older $6.99 5,557 80% 167k $1.2M (exactly $1,165,303) Nomad Games
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Day of the Shell $14.99 382 68% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Duper Games
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Archon Soul $13.99 170 88% 5.1k $71k (exactly $71,349) PolyGryph

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.