Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Top-Down Shooter?

PvE + Top-Down Shooter

Of 355 developers who shipped a PvE Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 581 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 206 developers shipped in the last year and 581 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 581 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 355
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $538 → $359 → $479 → $358 → $299 → $299 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 355
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,814)
Developers, 2 yr 355
Released games 850
Announced 581
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 62,039 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 183 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 581 games are announced against 206 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
SYNTHETIK 2 · EA older $19.99 3,202 81% 96k $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) Flow Fire Games
Gatekeeper $14.99 2,706 82% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,216,888) Gravity Lagoon
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
Zombieville USA 3D $9.99 2,184 92% 66k $655k (exactly $654,545) Mika Mobile, Inc.
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Vital Shell $5.99 1,752 96% 53k $315k (exactly $314,834) MarvinWizard
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.