Should I ship a PvE Sandbox?
PvE + Sandbox
Of 224 developers who shipped a PvE Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 645 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3495 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 645 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,878) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $50,097) |
| Top 5% | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 224 |
| Released games | 559 |
| Announced | 645 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Crafting
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 633,274 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 645 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Valheim 2026 · $418M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M 
V Rising 2024 · $116M 
Enshrouded 2024 · EA · $112M 
Dune: Awakening 2025 · $100M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
| | V Rising | older | $34.99 | 110,505 89% | 3.3M | $116M (exactly $115,997,098) | Stunlock Studios |
| | Enshrouded | · EA older | $39.99 | 93,426 85% | 2.8M | $112M (exactly $112,083,172) | Keen Games GmbH |
| | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
 | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | SnowRunner | older | $29.99 | 46,343 90% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $41,694,797) | Saber Interactive |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | Survive the Nights | $19.99 | 4,719 68% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) | a2z Interactive | |
 | Everwind | · EA | $24.99 | 3,454 81% | 104k | $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) | Enjoy Studio S.A. |
 | Occupy Mars: The Game | $29.99 | 2,714 68% | 81k | $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) | ▲ Pyramid Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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