Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE RPG?

PvE + RPG

Of 942 developers who shipped a PvE RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,220 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1360 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 2,220 games are announced against 590 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 2,220 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 942
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $899 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 942
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,194)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,671)
Top 5% $854k (exactly $854,145)
Developers, 2 yr 942
Released games 2,294
Announced 2,220
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 494,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 479 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,220 games are announced against 590 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M God of War 2022 · $195M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M Warhammer 40,000: Darktide 2022 · $130M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.