Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer RPG?

RPG + Puzzle Platformer

Of 124 developers who shipped a Puzzle Platformer RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 254 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×180 the market median. Revenue is up 1340% on the market; 254 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1340% on the market, 254 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 124
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.0k → $1.3k → $598 → $299 → $525 → $4.3k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 124
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $113k (exactly $113,209)
Developers, 2 yr 124
Released games 459
Announced 254
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1340% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 21,423 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 254 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Firework older $9.99 41,172 97% 1.2M $12M (exactly $12,339,248) Shiying Studio
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Sanfu older $10.99 17,323 82% 520k $5.7M (exactly $5,711,393) Shiying Studio
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Sable older $24.99 5,365 86% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,022,140) Shedworks
Hob older $19.99 4,667 88% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,798,800) Runic Games
Song of Nunu: A League of Legends Story older $29.99 2,742 94% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,977) Tequila Works
DEEMO -Reborn- older $24.99 3,188 87% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) Rayark International Limited
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Trine 5: A Clockwork Conspiracy older $29.99 2,524 89% 76k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,843) Frozenbyte
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Scarlet Idol $7.99 2,586 66% 78k $620k (exactly $619,864) 山雨工作室
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Fallen Tear: The Ascension · EA $24.99 222 81% 6.7k $166k (exactly $166,433) Winter Crew Studios
Cursed Armor 2 $15.99 236 84% 7.1k $113k (exactly $113,209) wolfgame
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.