Do I ship it?

GamesTraditional RoguelikeTraditional Roguelike + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Traditional Roguelike?

Traditional Roguelike + Puzzle

Only 19 developers shipped a Puzzle Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Infinite Cards, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. Revenue is down 85% on the market, with 21 games announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Traditional Roguelike + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $510k → $536 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Traditional Roguelike + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $46k (exactly $46,051)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 37
Announced 21
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 435% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Traditional Roguelike, Puzzle; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $46k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 21 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Traditional Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair15 devs · median $2.9k · 19 announced
  2. + Procedural GenerationFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + CRPGFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  4. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  5. + Turn-Based CombatFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  6. + Sci-fiFair26 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  7. + TacticalFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  8. + FantasyFair99 devs · median $898 · 125 announced
  9. + Turn-Based StrategyFair63 devs · median $779 · 101 announced
  10. + Turn-Based TacticsFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  11. + RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced
  12. + StrategyFair152 devs · median $599 · 207 announced

All 54 pairs on the Traditional Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Desktop Dungeons older $14.99 1,134 88% 34k $510k (exactly $509,960) QCF Design
Desktop Dungeons: Rewind older $19.99 501 75% 15k $300k (exactly $300,450) QCF Design
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Right and Down older $9.99 200 80% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) mc2games
Infinite Cards $15.99 96 93% 2.9k $46k (exactly $46,051) Tubby Turtle Studios
Undergrave older $9.99 72 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Wired Dreams Studio
I Am Overburdened older $4.99 138 86% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,659) Magic Item Tech
Endhall older $2.99 111 84% 3.3k $10k (exactly $9,957) Heartbeast
Hydra Slayer older $5.99 45 93% 1.4k $8.1k (exactly $8,086) Zeno Rogue
Nova-111 older $4.99 54 79% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Funktronic Labs
DungeonSweeper $7.99 21 76% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Smoketree Studios
Tetra Dungeon $4.99 25 88% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) 套鹿工作室
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
Azure Dragon's Treasure And 999 Days of Survival $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Moyu Studio
The Cascadier · EA $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Enchanted Arcade
5 Golden Skulls $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) YorshInGame
PUPAI · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) ThunderBanana
ByteRogue $2.55 7 100% 210 $536 (exactly $536) 11clock
Platon³ $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) AER Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.