Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Traditional Roguelike?

Perma Death + Traditional Roguelike

Of 49 developers who shipped a Perma Death Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 55 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 55 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $37k → $5.9k → $1.7k → $3.4k → $2.9k → $2.0k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $209k (exactly $208,986)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 116
Announced 55
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Traditional Roguelike; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Procedural Generation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 10,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Lost Flame $13.99 168 96% 5.0k $71k (exactly $70,510) Bartosz Bojarowski
Shadowed: The Demon Castle of Ooe $15.99 56 92% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) Lab Rabbit Games ltd
Roguecraft DX $11.99 39 92% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Badger Punch Games
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt
Deadzoned · EA $4.99 66 98% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) caiys
DeAnima $9.99 26 84% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Steelgaze Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.