Do I ship it?

GamesTraditional RoguelikeTraditional Roguelike + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Traditional Roguelike?

Traditional Roguelike + Fantasy

Of 99 developers who shipped a Fantasy Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 125 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 125 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Traditional Roguelike + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $202k → $3.0k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $719 → $599 → $1.3k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Traditional Roguelike + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,492)
Top 5% $120k (exactly $119,952)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 201
Announced 125
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,351 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Traditional Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair15 devs · median $2.9k · 19 announced
  2. + Procedural GenerationFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + CRPGFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  4. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  5. + Turn-Based CombatFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  6. + Sci-fiFair26 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  7. + TacticalFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair63 devs · median $779 · 101 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced
  11. + StrategyFair152 devs · median $599 · 207 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced

All 54 pairs on the Traditional Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
Desktop Dungeons older $14.99 1,134 88% 34k $510k (exactly $509,960) QCF Design
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
Rift Wizard older $14.99 1,011 91% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Dylan White
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Infinite Cards $15.99 96 93% 2.9k $46k (exactly $46,051) Tubby Turtle Studios
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Beach Defense: Zombie Invasion $3.99 197 81% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) Only Fun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.