Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike CRPG?

CRPG + Traditional Roguelike

Only 12 developers shipped a Traditional Roguelike CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Caves of Qud, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 980% on the market; 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 980% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for CRPG + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,095)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,699,232)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 26
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 980% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Traditional Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 12,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  5. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  6. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  7. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  8. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  9. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $19k · 27 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) 2015 · $563k The Doors of Trithius 2021 · EA · $438k Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos 2021 · $257k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos older $19.99 429 47% 13k $257k (exactly $257,271) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysz… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez, Bastian von Gostomski, Carola Sochiera, Björn Loesing)
Golden Krone Hotel older $9.99 313 94% 9.4k $94k (exactly $93,806) Vulgat
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
Zorbus older $4.99 364 90% 11k $54k (exactly $54,491) Zorbus
Hieroglyphika older $9.99 143 63% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) M. Hanka
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
Dungeons of Freeport $7.99 28 89% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Funtime Electrics
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops
懒人也江湖 · EA $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) 恒睿游戏
Eternal Price: Whispers of Mystery · EA $3.99 4 25% 120 $479 (exactly $479) 逐梦工作室
Steel Defence $0.99 9 66% 270 $267 (exactly $267) Storytime Studio
City of Despair: Shadows Over Tokyo $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.