Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Roguelike?

Roguelike + Traditional Roguelike

Of 247 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 314 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 314 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 314 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 247
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $599 → $449 → $2.3k → $899 → $599 → $987 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 247
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $120k (exactly $119,952)
Developers, 2 yr 247
Released games 448
Announced 314
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Traditional Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 24,906 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 314 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + LogicFair141 devs · median $599 · 168 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.